In general, most soccer teams perform according to their recent results record. This means that, in general, they will tend to lose against better teams and win against poorer teams. The quality of the teams is reflected in their position in the league, when the season has stabilized and “all other things being equal”.
Now, we could take the basic league standings as a guide for the form, but this can change from day to day for reasons unrelated to the team itself, for example, the results of other teams. So we need to have a slightly more sophisticated system for evaluating team performance that takes recent (but how recent?) results into account. That’s the first part.
So we need a way to assess each game in advance to arrive at a probable result, ideally to be able to put a number on it so we can compare one game to another and decide which is more likely to be a home win, a draw or an away win. From home. In this way we can arrive at a ranking for each of the 49 games in a British coupon (which of course can cover Australian rules football games during the British summer). That is the second part.
The analysis of the 2009-2010 season of British football gives us an idea of what the average results are. Throughout the season (40 coupon groups), 45% of games were home wins, 26% were road wins, and 27% were ties (scoring and no-scoring ties combined).
So, with a measure of team performance, a way to compare matches, and past stats, we can begin to ‘locate’ and where the draws might be (or, for that matter, home vs. away, if that’s your preference). of bets). ).
In general, these are just averages – each week will be different and there will be some unexpected results.
Therefore, to maximize our chances of winning, whether at triple odds or at fixed odds, we need a method of spreading our bets. We do this through plans or permanent, which allow us to cover many combinations. After all, picking 3 draws out of 49 random matches is a pretty long shot (odds are over 18,000 to 1). In a 10-horse race, you have odds of 10/1 of picking the winner. With fixed odds bets, the bookmaker will have adjusted the payout odds to take into account (initially) likely outcomes, and the odds will vary depending on the bets placed by other bettors. So while in practice we could bet, say, 10 cents per combination, that’s a big bet for 18,000 lines and we wouldn’t cover it with a profit due to the fixed odds (even if the bookie accepted the bet), although we probably would have. many winning lines if there were, say, 8 ties in the results.
However, if we were to place a bet of 3 draws out of 10 games (120 split bets) or 5 games out of 10 (252 split bets), we would probably get much better odds. This is because the odds are much higher; however, if we choose our 10 draw forecast carefully, then we can reduce the odds considerably and still have the possibility of multiple win lines and profit.
(c) Phil Marks 2010
